Moody's (MCO) DCF Valuation
DCF valuation model for Moody's Corp: $366 base case across 15 tabs, 1,465 formulas and 3 scenarios.
Summary
Built a discounted cash flow valuation model for Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) in Excel, spanning FY2019 actuals through FY2033E projections. The workbook carries its own integrity framework: balance sheet ties, cash reconciliation, and net working capital consistency checks, all passing across three scenarios.
Approach
Constructed a 15-tab workbook with scenario-driven revenue engines (MIS maturity wall tailwinds + MA GenAI uplift), non-circular capital allocation, and a complete integrity framework including balance sheet ties, cash reconciliation, and NWC consistency checks.
Key Result
Base case implies $366/share (WACC 8.65%, TGR 2.5%) against a ~$500+ market price. The gap is primarily a discount rate artifact — at peer-median beta the price narrows to ~$427, closing 70% of the gap.