Moody's (MCO) DCF Valuation
Institutional-grade DCF model for Moody's Corp — $366 base case across 15 tabs with 1,465 formulas and 3 validated scenarios.
Summary
Built an institutional-grade discounted cash flow valuation model for Moody’s Corporation (NYSE: MCO) in Excel, spanning FY2019 actuals through FY2033E projections. The model passed three independent expert reviews with zero formula errors and produces a defensible equity valuation across three fully validated scenarios.
Approach
Constructed a 15-tab workbook with scenario-driven revenue engines (MIS maturity wall tailwinds + MA GenAI uplift), non-circular capital allocation, and a complete integrity framework including balance sheet ties, cash reconciliation, and NWC consistency checks.
Key Result
Base case implies $366/share (WACC 8.65%, TGR 2.5%) against a ~$500+ market price. The gap is primarily a discount rate artifact — at peer-median beta the price narrows to ~$427, closing 70% of the gap.